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New breaking point for European recovered paper

New breaking point for European recovered paper
According to Geminor, the European recovered paper (RCP) market could see a 25 percent drop in prices as demand for packaging slumps and energy costs soar while RCP and paper inventories are fully stocked (photo courtesy Geminor).

The European market for recovered paper (RCP) is facing a rough ride in the months to come. According to Yasser Ismail, RCP expert at Norway-headed waste-based fuels and materials aggregator and supplier Geminor AS (Geminor), "a price drop of as much as 25 percent, combined with other factors, creates a new reality for the paper industry."

Paper production and the re-use of paper for recycling is a huge business in Europe. According to the Confederation of European Paper Industries (CEPI), the European Association representing the paper industry, the total pulp, and paper turnover reached EUR 95 billion in 2021, an increase of EUR 13 billion from 2020.

Paper and board production last year ended at 90.6 million tonnes in Europe, with a production capacity rate of just over 90 percent.

Sudden market change

Also, the first half of 2022 has shown industry growth – and what until recently seemed to be a full COVID recovery for the big players of the business.

But by the end of July, we are seeing a radical change. The signs of a back-bouncing market were present back in May, but were not expected before Q4, remarked Yasser Ismail, Senior Account & Development Manager Germany at Geminor, and an expert in RCP.

According to him, some of the world’s largest packaging producers located throughout Europe are reporting a decrease in their recovered paper (RCP) demand.

This is because the market for packaging goods is under pressure and starting to tumble. Each of the German packaging mills announced for August an RCP reduction of 20 000 to 50 000 tonnes, or close to 15 percent down from normal offtake. In addition, several paper mills have brought forward or extended their necessary inspection and shutdown periods, said Yasser Ismail.

An extraordinary situation

Yasser Ismail has over 23 years of experience within the pulp and paper industry. He has not seen a quicker change in the packaging market since the 2008 crisis.

The European economy is facing an extraordinary situation with inflation running wild, a war in Ukraine, and prolonged shipping capacity issues. Naturally, this also affects the paper industry, and two factors, in particular, are creating these sudden challenges: A dramatic fall in general consumption, and a tripling of energy prices, Yasser Ismail said.

At the moment, both recovered and new paper stocks are full to the brim. This has a profound effect on the current RCP market prices.

Market price-related contracts for mixed paper (CEPI-Grade Code 1.01/1.02) and OCC (CEPI-Grade Code 1.04/ 1.05 and 4.03 Old Corrugated Carton) fractions have recently fallen by 30 to 80 EUR per tonne, or close to 25 percent from July to August, Yasser Ismail said.

Affected by gas prices

Yasser Ismail, Senior Account & Development Manager Germany at Geminor, and an expert on recovered paper (RCP) markets (photo courtesy Geminor).

A high percentage of the collected recovered paper is reused in the packaging industry, which makes it sensitive to economic fluctuations.

The decrease in the production of precursor products for the automotive and aerospace industries alone is resulting in a reduction in packaging production of as much as 17 percent.

In addition, the cost of producing paper products, which mostly depends on gas and electricity prices, is reaching a level where the profits are fading away.

There has been a public debate since April regarding the possibility of gas triage to provide heat for private households over the winter. This has led to general uncertainty for many businesses, also in Germany. Some mills are reporting that in the event of a government rationing or allocation of gas, production could be cut by 50 percent. This will affect all parts of the value chain, said Yasser Ismail

As a consequence of this it could become a challenge to find off-takers for uncontracted bulk grade quantities, which are day-traded on best-price level, Yasser Ismail added.

Shipping issues

Normally, the export of recovered paper could help balance the European market. Out of the 50.1 million tonnes of recovered paper for recycling utilized in 2021, more than 6,9 million tonnes were exported out of Europe.

This export is also facing challenges, as Asia is currently “silent”. There are reports of container equipment challenges for the East-Bound traffic to Asia, which makes it difficult to export RCP. This and other factors temporarily lead to the reduction of export of packaging papers and the increase in quantities within Europe, explained Yasser Ismail.

A predictable market

Falling or rising recovered paper prices are not necessarily a problem, Yasser Ismail points out but the market players in all parts of the value chain need to adapt to a new reality.

With the prices advertised in July and August, we have reached an unprecedented all-time high in several RCP grades. The problem associated with this is basically that sales are inflated, fiscal liquidity increases diametrically and the financial default risk increases for each individual load on the customer side, Yasser Ismail highlighted.

This may be a new breaking point in this industry. Most likely we will see more frequent fluctuations in the RCP markets in the future, with varying volumes, production capacity, demand, and prices, said Yasser Ismail.

Paper recycling is an important part of a sustainable Europe, but to develop a well-functioning circular economy, a more stable and predictable market is needed.

The European average recycling rate has fallen slightly, and to get it back on track we must ensure that recovered paper continues to be an attractive commodity, Yasser Ismail concluded.

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