A major new study has mapped how changes across agriculture, forestry and land use could help Ireland achieve climate neutrality by 2050 while increasing total protein output by 47 percent and domestic bioenergy almost five-fold.
Published by InformBio, a project to develop a prototype national bioeconomy monitoring system funded by the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, and led by Munster Technological University (MTU) in partnership with the University of Galway, Teagasc and the Central Statistics Office, the Unlocking Ireland’s Bioeconomy: A 2050 National Strategic Foresight Report, compares a bioeconomy-focused pathway with a business-as-usual scenario for Ireland’s agriculture, forestry and other land-use sectors.
Alongside the foresight study, InformBio has developed a new Bioeconomy Monitoring Framework to help track Ireland’s transition towards a circular bioeconomy.
This is structured around the pillars of Ireland’s Bioeconomy Strategy and incorporates environmental, social and economic indicators.
The bioeconomy uses renewable biological resources, such as grass, crops, forestry resources and organic by-products, to produce food, energy, materials and other products.
If Ireland is to realise the potential of the bioeconomy, we need to be able to measure how it is developing and whether progress is being made across environmental, social and economic objectives. The Bioeconomy Monitoring Framework provides a structured basis for doing that. It can help build a clearer picture of how the sector is evolving and provide the evidence needed to support future policy and investment decisions, said Réamonn Fealy, Senior Researcher at Teagasc.
Achieve climate neutrality
Under business as usual, net emissions from agriculture, forestry and land use are projected to rise to almost 30 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) by 2050.
By contrast, the bioeconomy pathway achieves climate neutrality through a combination of emissions reductions, land-use changes and carbon removals.
The pathway includes increased afforestation, peatland rewetting, expanded protein crop production, grass biorefineries, biomethane (aka renewable natural gas – RNG) and new uses for biomass.
At the same time, total protein output increases by 47 percent, through increased milk and crop protein and protein produced from grass through biorefineries, while domestic bioenergy production increases almost five-fold.
This research looks at the transition as a whole rather than considering individual technologies in isolation. The findings show that a circular bioeconomy can perform strongly across climate, environmental, production and resilience measures. Business as usual would leave agriculture, forestry and land use increasingly exposed to regulatory, market, trade and climate risks. Diversifying the bioeconomy provides a route towards climate neutrality while continuing to provide the food, energy and materials society needs, said David Styles, Professor in Agricultural Sustainability at University of Galway.
The pathway was also found to be more resilient to future climate, market and economic shocks than business as usual.
Achieving climate neutrality does not have to mean choosing between environmental sustainability and productive land use. Our research shows that significant reductions in environmental impacts can be achieved while increasing Ireland’s production of protein and renewable energy. This will require changes across agriculture, forestry and land use, alongside the development of new bio-based industries. While that transition carries risks, our analysis shows that continuing with business-as-usual carries considerably greater long-term risks, said James Gaffey, Co-director of Circular Bioeconomy Research Group (CircBio), CABR, Munster Technological University.
