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Annual renewable power must triple by 2030 – IRENA

Annual renewable power must triple by 2030 – IRENA
Under the 1.5°C Scenario, electricity generation would more than triple from 2020 to 2050, with 91% of the total electricity supply coming from renewable sources, compared to 28% in 2020. Coal- and oil-based power generation would experience a sharp decline over the decade before being phased out entirely by mid-century. By 2050, natural gas would provide 5% of total electricity needs, with the remaining 4% being met by nuclear power plants. The transition features a synergy between increasingly affordable renewable power technologies and the wider adoption of electric technologies for end-use applications, especially in transport and heat. The electrification of transport, heat, and other end uses implies that global renewable power generation capacity would need to expand by a factor of almost 12 by end-2050, compared to 2020 levels, in order to meet the 1.5°C target (graphic courtesy IRENA).

In the first volume of the World Energy Transitions Outlook (WETO) 2023 released on June 22, 2023, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) identifies the way forward to immediately course correct the 1.5°C climate pathway. The report calls for raised global ambition in renewables deployment, enabled by physical infrastructure, policy, and regulations, and underlining institutional and workforce capabilities.

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The WETO 2023: 1.5°C Pathway positions electrification and efficiency as key transition drivers, enabled by renewable energy, clean hydrogen, and sustainable biomass, and tracks implementation across all energy sectors.

According to the latest edition, some progress has been made, mainly in the power sector with record additions in global renewable capacity of 300 GW in 2022. However, the gap between what has been achieved and what is required continues to grow.

More ambitious renewable energy targets are needed; the world must add an average of 1 TW of renewable power capacity annually by 2030, as well as significantly increase the direct use of renewables in end-use sectors.

We face the harsh reality that we are not on track to deliver on the Paris Agreement. Our only option is to follow the most promising, science-based pathway, one that puts renewable energy at the centre of the solution, while leading countries to energy security, reduced energy costs, and forward-looking industrial development. The energy transition must become a strategic tool to foster a more equitable and inclusive world. COP28 and the Global Stocktake must not only confirm our deviation from a 1.5°C pathway but also provide a strategic blueprint to steer us back on track, said Francesco La Camera, Director-General of IRENA.

With the first Global Stocktake concluding at COP28 in the UAE, WETO provides much-needed clarity on priority actions in the coming years.

A goal alone is not enough. This report provides us with a solid pathway to implementation and I welcome IRENA’s recommendations. I have called for a tripling of renewable energy by 2030, which is in line with IRENA’s WETO report. The speed at which the energy transition happens depends on how quickly we can phase up zero-carbon alternatives, whilst ensuring energy security so that nobody is left behind, said COP28 President-Designate H.E. Dr Sultan al-Jaber.

Focusing on the enablers of a renewables-dominated system can help address the structural barriers hindering progress in the energy transition. WETO has identified that getting the 1.5° pathway back on track requires addressing the following barriers:

  • lack of physical infrastructure;
  • absence of enabling policies and regulations; and
  • misalignments in skills and institutional capacity.

Adding speed and scale to the energy transition requires rewriting international cooperation.

This necessitates an assessment of the roles and responsibilities of national and regional entities, international organizations, international financial institutions, and multilateral development banks, to ensure their optimal contributions to the energy transition. It also means ensuring that funds reach the world’s most vulnerable.

We also need the political will to create the necessary conditions to rapidly scale up renewables. This must create the frameworks for end-to-end delivery and provide the accessible and affordable finance necessary for project pipelines. To meet our 2030 targets, we need urgent action to fast-track expansions of grid infrastructure, reduce permitting timelines, and reduce the cost of capital in emerging markets and developing economies, H.E. Dr Sultan al-Jaber said.

WETO provides the analyses and the narrative for COP28 and the call by the COP28 President-Designate to build coalitions that deliver end-to-end support across the renewables ecosystem and enables us to triple renewable energy capacity as part of a just energy transition that leaves nobody behind.

I was glad to recently reaffirm a shared commitment with the EU to ensure maximum support among parties at COP28 to triple renewable energy by 2030. The COP28 Presidency also announced this week that Kenya will champion the drive in Africa to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, said H.E. Dr Sultan al-Jaber.

IRENA works closely with countries to support the development and implementation of renewable energy policies and strategies in line with the 1.5°C Pathway outlined in WETO.

The Agency also provides technical assistance and capacity building to help countries to increase the share of renewables in their energy mix.

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