A new report by Guidehouse on behalf of the European Biogas Association (EBA) reveals that Europe (EU-27 + UK, Norway, and Switzerland) could produce 111 billion cubic metres (bcm) of biomethane by 2040. This amount represents over 30 percent of the EU's gas consumption for 2022.
As a renewable and domestically-produced gas source, biomethane aka renewable natural gas (RNG) is gaining momentum and the industry is fast mobilizing to speed up the decarbonization of many sectors of the European economy.
Biogases will play an important role in the European Union’s (EU) ambition to achieve a net-zero future by 2050.
Via the REPowerEU Plan, the European Commission has set a target to produce 35 billion cubic metres (bcm) of biomethane annually in the EU by 2030. This represents a ten-fold increase in current biomethane production.
From 35 bcm 2030 to 101 bcm by 2040
According to the latest European Biogas Association (EBA) consolidated data from 2022, Europe is producing 4 bcm of biomethane thanks to newly built plants and upgrading existing biogas units.
Raw biogas production mainly used in combined heat and power (CHP) plants is currently at 17 bcm.
The EU’s focus is now on 2040 as a mid-term milestone towards climate neutrality.
The European Commission has recommended a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction target of 90 percent by 2040, relative to 1990 levels. This will require further action to decarbonize across all sectors of the economy.
The Commission’s accompanying Impact Assessment shows that even in a scenario with accelerated electrification across the economy, there will still be a substantial demand for gas.
This gas demand can be progressively replaced by renewable gases, such as biomethane.
The 2040 biomethane potential for Europe – the EU 27, Norway, Switzerland, and the UK – estimated in the Guidehouse report “Biogases towards 2040 and beyond A realistic and resilient path to climate neutrality” is 111 bcm of which 74 bcm is from anaerobic digestion (AD) and 37 bcm via thermal gasification.
The biggest producers in 2040 are estimated to be Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and Poland, as well as the UK.
The paper also provides a targeted update of the 2022 Gas for Climate study following the same assumptions and methodology, yet incorporating the latest data and insights to review the potential estimates for 2030 and 2050.
The latest analysis shows that up to 44 bcm of biomethane could be produced in Europe in 2030 and 165 bcm in 2050.
Additionally, to the biomethane potential assessment, the study gives further insights into novel feedstocks and technologies that can boost the potential for biomethane production.
Realizing those potentials will require a favorable and stable policy environment that gives certainty to stakeholders across the biomethane value chain.
However, with the right conditions, there is significant potential waiting to be unlocked the report shows.
