Increase in renewables has led to an unprecedented change in energy supply

Published by the World Energy Council (WEC) and launched at the the 23rd World Energy Congress in Istanbul, Turkey, the report reveals that the “unexpectedly” high growth in the renewable energies market, in terms of investment, new capacity and high growth rates in developing countries, is a key factor in this notable shift. It has contributed to falling prices and the increased decoupling of economic growth and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

– Our report finds that the diversification of technologies and resources, now applied in the energy sector, creates many opportunities, but the enlarged complexity also leads to increased challenges. With the existing level of volatility, relying on solid facts and data as basis for strategic decision making by the relevant stakeholders, such as governments, international organisations and companies, is becoming even more important than in the past, said Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer, Executive Chair, World Energy Resources (WER) at the launch of the report.

Hydro leads renewable power

The total renewable based power generation was 5 559 TWh in 2015, which is 23 percent of the total worldwide power generation of 24 098 TWh. Hydropower remains the leading global renewable source for electricity generation supplying 71 percent of all renewable electricity in 2015. 15 percent was based on wind, 5 percent was solar energy and 9 percent was derived from biomass, geothermal and others together.

– The total global renewable energy based power capacity has doubled within the last ten years, from 1,037 GW in 2006 to 1,985 GW by the end of the year 2015. This has been caused by a record deployment in particular of wind and solar capacity for power generation, noted Schiffer.

Biomass, biofuels and biogas

The report also finds bioenergy to be the largest renewable energy source accounting for 10 percent of the global energy supply. It is also the largest renewable with 14 percent out of 18 percent renewables in the energy mix. The report notes that in contrast to other energy sources, biomass can be converted into solid, liquid and gaseous fuels. Furthermore it is shifting from a traditional and indigenous energy source to a modern and globally traded commodity with wood pellets, ethanol and biodiesel cases in point.

With biofuels being the “most viable and sustainable option” in replacing oil dependency, the report suggests future demand will come from the need for renewables in transport, followed by heating and electricity sectors. It is also noted that woody biomass provides about 90 percent of the primary energy annually sourced from all forms of biomass. Wood is also the source of more than 52 million tonnes of charcoal used in cooking in many countries, and for smelting of iron and other metal ores. The report also projects rapid growth, 9.7 percent per annum, of “biological” waste to energy (WtE) technologies such as anaerobic digestion as they become commercially viable and penetrate the market.

Stranded assets to stranded resources

– We have seen a dramatic increase of unconventional resources and no less dramatic technology improvement in the renewables space over the past decade. Oil will still be needed for transportation providing over 60 percent of energy needs but overall oil demand will flatten out. The golden age of gas will continue, with expected output growth between 25 percent and 70 percent by 2060. With stagnating growth potential in the oil sector and with coal likely to be of little importance by 2060, there will be a shift in the discussion from stranded assets, predominantly enterprise owned, to stranded resources in oil and coal, predominantly state owned. This has the potential to cause significant stress to the current global economic and geopolitical equilibrium and will need to be part of a broadened carbon and climate dialogue, remarked Christoph Frei, Secretary General, World Energy Council (WEC).

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