Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) projections released May 31 show that Ireland’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increase from current levels to 2020, underpinned by strong economic growth. This is despite an EU target to reduce GHG emissions by 20 percent on 2005 levels from the non-Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) sector – agriculture, transport, residential, commercial, non-energy intensive industry and waste.
The latest projections published by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) show that, at best, Ireland will only achieve a one percent reduction by 2020 compared to the 20 percent reduction target.
In relation to 2030, Ireland’s target calls for a 30 percent reduction of emissions compared to 2005, with binding annual limits over the 2021-2030 period. These latest projections indicate that Ireland will exceed the allowable carbon budget implied by those limits by between 47-52 million tonnes over the period, even assuming the allowed-for flexibilities are fully used.
The latest projections show that increasing fossil fuel consumption and an expanding agriculture sector are leading to increased emissions. In particular:
- Energy industry emissions – mainly power generation – are projected to grow strongly from 2020 to 2025 as a result of an expansion of co-firing of peat and biomass;
- Transport emissions are projected to increase from current levels by 17-18 percent by 2020 and by 17-20 percent by 2030. A decline in emissions is projected from 2025 to 2030, resulting from an acceleration in the number of electric vehicles on Irish roads;
- Agriculture emissions are projected to increase by between 3-4 percent by 2020 and 6-7 percent by 2030 on current levels based on an expansion of animal numbers, particularly for the national dairy herd.
The EPA’s latest greenhouse gas emissions projections show that emissions will continue to grow in tandem with economic growth in the absence of significant new policy interventions. There will be strong growth in the short term in emissions from transport driven by increased fossil fuel consumption, while continued use of coal and peat in power generation offsets the addition of new renewable generation. Achieving stated commitments in relation to our national policy position and greenhouse gas emission reductions requires action on many fronts and across each sector. In particular, we are highlighting the need for a decisive move away from fossil fuels through significantly improved energy efficiency and the use of cleaner, renewable fuels, said Dr Eimear Cotter, Director of the Office of Environmental Sustainability.
Ireland is committed to becoming a low carbon economy and society. A significant number of new or extended measures have been announced in the recent National Development Plan and the National Mitigation Plan.
Transforming our society to low carbon has associated climate and health benefits and our projections show that we are currently not on track to meet this ambition or meet our EU targets. The anticipated impact of the recently announced policies and measures has yet to be incorporated into the projections. This needs to happen as soon as possible to ensure that we have the best information available on Ireland’s future emissions’ trajectory and the impact of these Government policies. This will inform robust policy decisions into the future, said Stephen Treacy, EPA Senior Scientist.
